Predicting the Bloom

Bright green waters, often capped with foam. Floating mats of algae washing up on the shoreline. And an invisible toxin that can cause rashes, breathing and nervous system problems, and liver damage.

Harmful algal blooms (HABs) can have many negative impacts on the Lake Erie ecosystem and its economy, from deterring tourist visits to fouling drinking water. But as with most problems, being able to prepare means those impacts can be reduced or avoided altogether.

Of course, preparation requires knowing what to expect. Because harmful algal blooms in western Lake Erie typically occur in late summer, researchers can develop tools that estimate the size and location of a bloom based on recurring factors like rainfall and nutrient runoff from the watershed. So after an accurate first-time prediction last year, the National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration’s National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NCCOS) once again issued a seasonal harmful algal bloom (HAB) forecast for Lake Erie at an all-day press event at Ohio State’s Stone Lab.